By 
By Oche Joshua Achede
The relationship between Africa’s two largest economies has always been a complicated one. On paper, things look cordial between the Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa exchange pleasantries, shake hands, and talk about bilateral cooperation. But scratch beneath the surface, and the dynamic between ordinary citizens tells a very different story.
Social media rivalries, economic competition, and periodic outbreaks of xenophobic violence have created a tense undercurrent that formal diplomacy seems unable to fully address.
When the usual diplomatic channels fail to protect Nigerian citizens in South Africa, the status quo becomes unsustainable. Official statements and protests, no matter how strongly worded, cannot substitute for real action and accountability. The time has come to consider alternative approaches that go far beyond the traditional playbook.
The Current Crisis and Why Diplomacy Isn’t Enough
The year 2026 has seen tensions spike dramatically. Nigeria announced plans for the voluntary repatriation of its citizens from South Africa, with over 1,000 nationals registering to return home amid growing fears of anti-immigrant hostility and violence (Onu, 2026).
This came after earlier reports that at least 130 Nigerians had already signed up for voluntary return, with Foreign Minister Bianca Odumegwu-Ojukwu publicly warning that Nigerian lives and businesses in South Africa should no longer be exposed to ongoing risk (Adebayo, 2026).
In response, the Nigerian parliament dispatched a special delegation to South Africa to discuss the safety of Nigerian nationals and review whether previous bilateral agreements were being honored (Okafor, 2026). But these diplomatic efforts hit a familiar wall.
The South African government has consistently pushed back against accusations of xenophobia, with Presidency spokesperson Vincent Magwenya arguing that such claims unfairly damage the country’s reputation (Mkhize, 2026). This defensive posture suggests that traditional diplomacy may not be equipped to tackle the deeper, recurring issues driving these tensions.
Nigeria – South Africa: A simmering rivalry?
The rivalry has actually been simmering since 2014, when Nigeria’s GDP-rebasing exercise revealed it had overtaken South Africa as the continent’s largest economy (World Bank, 2014). That rebasing—which shifted the base year from 1990 to 2010 and brought in sectors like film, telecommunications, and information technology—pushed Nigeria’s GDP from $270 billion to $510 billion, a staggering 88.8% jump (National Bureau of Statistics, 2014).
While much of the back-and-forth about cultural superiority might seem like harmless banter, it has occasionally escalated into more dangerous territory, with incidents of sabotage, hostile clashes, and xenophobic violence cropping up in both countries (Adepoju, 2020).
Understanding What’s Really Driving the Conflict
To move past diplomatic gridlock, we have to get honest about the underlying factors fueling these tensions. South Africa’s unemployment rate, which sat at a staggering 32.7% in the first quarter of 2026, constantly fuels anxiety over jobs, public services, and immigration (Statistics South Africa, 2026).
The situation is even more dire for young people between 15 and 34, whose unemployment rate hovers at nearly 46% (Statistics South Africa, 2026). When people are struggling to make ends meet, it’s tragically predictable that they will look for scapegoats—and foreign nationals often fit that bill (Crush & Tawodzera, 2017).
Currently, about 3.09 million immigrants live in South Africa, making up 5.1% of the population (Statistics South Africa, 2022). The vast majority—83.8%—are Black African, and over 63% come from other Southern African Development Community countries (Statistics South Africa, 2022).
“Significant presence of fellow Africans has fueled what scholars call “Afrophobia”
This significant presence of fellow Africans has fueled what scholars call “Afrophobia”—a prejudice against other Africans that often erupts in violence and discrimination (Neocosmos, 2008). As one analysis put it, Nigeria and South Africa are regional powerhouses with enormous soft power resources, yet recurring Afrophobic incidents keep sparking diplomatic rows between Pretoria and Abuja (Adebajo, 2020).
At the same time, Nigeria’s diplomatic influence has waned considerably since its heyday in the 1970s and 1980s, when it funded liberation movements and helped shape ECOWAS and the African Union. A 2024 report from the International Crisis Group describes Nigeria’s declining clout as “primarily self-inflicted,” pointing to distracted leadership, economic fragility, and chronic underfunding of diplomatic institutions (International Crisis Group, 2024, p. 3).
The report notes that policy inconsistency, distracted presidents, and pressing security and economic challenges have all diverted attention and resources away from foreign engagements (International Crisis Group, 2024). This weakened state capacity makes it much harder for Nigeria to protect its citizens abroad through formal diplomatic channels alone.
Creative Alternatives When Diplomacy Falls Short
When state-to-state diplomacy fails to deliver meaningful change, we need to get creative. Drawing on research and emerging thinking about the Nigeria-South Africa relationship, several innovative approaches are worth exploring.
Cultural Diplomacy and Creative Industries
One of the most promising yet surprisingly underexplored—solutions lies in the creative industries both nations already share. Scholars have argued that by highlighting cultural products admired by citizens of both countries, we can significantly reduce the mutual suspicion that fuels xenophobic outbursts (Ndlovu-Gatsheni, 2021).
The film industry, Afro-pop music, national festivals, and cultural troupes all offer powerful platforms for deepening people-to-people connections (Oyedele, 2022).
“Nigerian and South African music scenes already enjoy deep cross-pollination”
Nigerian and South African music scenes already enjoy deep cross-pollination—genres like Amapiano have transcended national borders, creating shared cultural experiences (Ebewo, 2021). Film industries could collaborate on productions that explore shared struggles and aspirations rather than reinforcing tired stereotypes (Mhiripiri, 2020).
Co-hosting cultural festivals would create spaces for ordinary citizens to interact outside the stressful context of economic competition (Ndlovu-Gatsheni, 2021). This isn’t just wishful thinking—it builds on existing relationships that already show what creative collaboration between the two nations could look like.
Social media, which has often amplified tensions, could be redirected toward constructive dialogue. Instead of the “bolt for bolt” battles between Lagos and Johannesburg, we could see creative challenges that celebrate shared African achievements (Oyedele, 2022).
Cultural influencers and content creators from both countries could model respectful cross-cultural engagement, proving that digital platforms can be used for unity rather than division (Mhiripiri, 2020).
Economic Integration and Shared Prosperity
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) presents a huge opportunity to reframe Nigeria-South Africa relations around shared economic interests rather than zero-sum competition.
However, current utilization is worryingly low—Nigeria’s AfCFTA utilization languishes at just 12%, and the country had issued only 10 Rules of Origin certificates by mid-2024 (African Development Bank, 2025). South Africa, by contrast, issued 4,658 certificates in the same period, highlighting a massive gap in engagement with the continental framework (African Development Bank, 2025).
“Creative economic diplomacy could demonstrate real benefits of collaboration over competition”
Creative economic diplomacy could involve joint ventures between Nigerian and South African businesses that demonstrate the real benefits of collaboration over competition (Oyejide, 2021).
South African companies could partner with Nigerian tech startups, which are scaling rapidly across the continent, creating synergies that benefit both countries’ private sectors (African Development Bank, 2025).
Nigerian diaspora remittances, which exceeded $20 billion annually and surpassed foreign direct investment in 2024, offer another avenue for structured economic cooperation (World Bank, 2025).
Instead of viewing each other as competitors for the same economic opportunities, both nations could develop complementary strategies—joint investments in infrastructure, technology transfer, and shared manufacturing capabilities—that benefit both populations (Oyejide, 2021).
Regional and Continental Approaches
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and Mozambican President Daniel Chapo have both acknowledged that migration challenges require a coordinated continental response rather than isolated national measures (Ramaphosa & Chapo, 2025). This recognition could be channeled into creative multilateral solutions that extend beyond the Nigeria-South Africa bilateral relationship.
A continental framework for protecting migrants’ rights—with clear protocols for reporting and responding to xenophobic incidents—would reduce the burden on individual nations’ diplomatic missions (African Union, 2020). Regional economic communities could develop joint monitoring mechanisms and rapid response protocols to address tensions before they spiral into violence (Crush & Tawodzera, 2017).
The African Union could play a more active mediation role when citizen-level tensions threaten to escalate into diplomatic incidents, providing a forum for honest dialogue and conflict resolution (Adebajo, 2020).
People-to-People Diplomacy and Diaspora Engagement
The Nigerian diaspora in South Africa represents a significant human resource for bridge-building. Rather than focusing solely on evacuation when crises hit, Nigerian communities in South Africa could develop institutional mechanisms for engaging with South African communities (Okafor, 2026). Exchange programs, educational partnerships, and sports diplomacy initiatives could create sustained people-to-people connections that transcend economic competition (Ndlovu-Gatsheni, 2021).
Community-based early warning systems could be established to detect and address tensions before they escalate into violence (Crush & Tawodzera, 2017). Nigerian community leaders and South African authorities could develop joint protocols for responding to incidents, reducing reliance on formal diplomatic channels that often prove too slow to protect vulnerable populations (Adepoju, 2020).
These community-level engagements could build trust incrementally, creating networks of understanding that withstand the periodic political tensions between the two nations.
Private Sector Solutions and Corporate Responsibility
South African businesses operating in Nigeria and Nigerian businesses operating in South Africa have a direct stake in maintaining stable relations. They could form business councils that actively invest in community relations and cultural understanding (Oyejide, 2021).
Corporate social responsibility programs could target areas where competition for resources is most acute, demonstrating concretely how cross-border economic activity benefits local communities (African Development Bank, 2025).
Business-led initiatives could play a constructive role in easing tensions. Their focus would be on joint infrastructure investment, alongside education and skills programmes for communities affected by migration disputes. And critically, they would aim to generate shared economic opportunities that serve the interests of workers from both nations (Oyejide, 2021). When economic actors demonstrate that collaboration is more profitable than competition, they create powerful incentives for political leaders to pursue cooperative approaches.
The Path Forward
When diplomacy fails, the response has to be creative, multi-dimensional, and sustained. The Nigeria-South Africa relationship is too important to be left to periodic diplomatic interventions that only happen when crises erupt.
Both nations are regional powers whose choices about cooperation, collaboration, partnership, or competition have implications for the entire continent (Adebajo, 2020). The relationship between these two economic giants shapes continental trade patterns, political dynamics, and the very idea of African unity.
Nigeria’s apparent retreat from continental diplomatic leadership may be reversible. As the International Crisis Group report observes, the government of President Bola Tinubu “appears conscious of the country’s geopolitical slippage and eager to reverse the trend” (International Crisis Group, 2024, p. 18).
The assets are still there—a diaspora sending home $20 billion annually, a tech ecosystem scaling across the continent, a military with deep regional experience, and a population that remains one of Africa’s most dynamic forces (International Crisis Group, 2024).
What’s needed isn’t a grand reinvention but a return to basics: effective diplomacy backed by adequate resources, clear mandates, and strategic thinking.
“Citizens of both nations must take responsibility for quality of their relationship”
The citizens of both nations also have to take responsibility for the quality of their relationship. As one commentator asked, are the cracks in African unity rooted in our inability to be honest about how we treat each other? (Ndlovu-Gatsheni, 2021).
Meaningful collaboration requires acknowledging difficult truths about identity, migration, economic pressure, and belonging on the continent. That requires honest dialogue at all levels—between governments, between communities, and between individuals.
The evacuation of Nigerian citizens from South Africa, while necessary in the short term, represents a failure of the relationship that both nations should work to prevent from recurring. Creative solutions that tackle underlying tensions and foster people-to-people connections offer the most promising path forward.
Shared economic opportunities, in particular, can turn potential rivalry into mutual gain. That is the foundation for a future where Nigerians in South Africa are respected contributors to regional prosperity, not victims of periodic violence.
Both nations need to recognize that their destinies are intertwined and that the ultimate measure of their relationship is not the absence of conflict, but the presence of genuine partnership and mutual respect.
By Oche Joshua Achede. Nile University Intern with the Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution (IPCR), Abuja, Nigeria.
References
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